Dietary intake of plant- and animal-derived protein and incident cardiovascular diseases: the pan-European EPIC-CVD case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence suggests that a potential association between dietary protein intake and cardiovascular disease (CVD) may depend on the protein source, that is, plant- or animal-derived, but past research was limited and inconclusive. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association of dietary plant- or animal-derived protein consumption with risk of CVD, and its components ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. METHODS: This analysis in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD case-cohort study included 16,244 incident CVD cases (10,784 IHD and 6423 stroke cases) and 15,141 subcohort members from 7 European countries. We investigated the association of estimated dietary protein intake with CVD, IHD, and stroke (total, fatal, and nonfatal) using multivariable-adjusted Prentice-weighted Cox regression. We estimated isocaloric substitutions of replacing fats and carbohydrates with plant- or animal-derived protein and replacing food-specific animal protein with plant protein. Multiplicative interactions between dietary protein and prespecified variables were tested. RESULTS: Neither plant- nor animal-derived protein intake was associated with incident CVD, IHD, or stroke in adjusted analyses without or with macronutrient-specified substitution analyses. Higher plant-derived protein intake was associated with 22% lower total stroke incidence among never smokers [HR 0.78, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.62, 0.99], but not among current smokers (HR 1.08, 95% CI: 0.83, 1.40, P-interaction = 0.004). Moreover, higher plant-derived protein (per 3% total energy) when replacing red meat protein (HR 0.52, 95% CI: 0.31, 0.88), processed meat protein (HR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.90), and dairy protein (HR 0.54, 95% CI: 0.30, 0.98) was associated with lower incidence of fatal stroke. CONCLUSION: Plant- or animal-derived protein intake was not associated with overall CVD. However, the association of plant-derived protein consumption with lower total stroke incidence among nonsmokers, and with lower incidence of fatal stroke highlights the importance of investigating CVD subtypes and potential interactions. These observations warrant further investigation in diverse populations with varying macronutrient intakes and dietary patterns.

Hypothetical 22-Year Intervention With the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension and Risk of Heart Failure in a General Population.

We used design principles of target trial methodology to emulate the effect of sustained adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet on the 22-year risk of heart failure. Women and men aged 45-83 years without previous heart failure, who answered questionnaires in 1997 from the Swedish Mammography Cohort and the Cohort of Swedish Men, were eligible. Follow-up questionnaires were sent in 2008-2009. Incidence of heart failure was ascertained using the Swedish Patient Register, updated until December 31, 2019. The parametric g-formula was used to estimate the 22-year risk of heart failure under sustained adherence to a population-adapted DASH diet compared with no intervention. Intakes before 1997 for before-baseline adjustment was available only for women. In total, 31,238 women and 34,939 men were eligible. The 22-year risk of heart failure was 14.5% with long-term adherence to the DASH diet compared with 15.2% with no intervention (risk difference = -0.7%, 95% confidence interval: 1.6, 0.0%) in women and correspondingly in men 15.3% vs. 16.2% (risk difference = -0.9%, 95% confidence interval: -1.6, -0.2%). Our hypothetical intervention suggests that sustained adherence to the population-adapted DASH diet may reduce risk of heart failure in middle-aged and elderly Swedish women and men.

Age at Menopause and the Risk of Stroke: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analysis in 204 244 Postmenopausal Women.

Background Observational studies have shown that women with an early menopause are at higher risk of stroke compared with women with a later menopause. However, associations with stroke subtypes are inconsistent, and the causality is unclear. Methods and Results We analyzed data of the UK Biobank and EPIC-CVD (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Diseases) study. A total of 204 244 postmenopausal women without a history of stroke at baseline were included (7883 from EPIC-CVD [5292 from the subcohort], 196 361 from the UK Biobank). Pooled mean baseline age was 58.9 years (SD, 5.8), and pooled mean age at menopause was 47.8 years (SD, 6.2). Over a median follow-up of 12.6 years (interquartile range, 11.8-13.3), 6770 women experienced a stroke (5155 ischemic strokes, 1615 hemorrhagic strokes, 976 intracerebral hemorrhages, and 639 subarachnoid hemorrhages). In multivariable adjusted observational Cox regression analyses, the pooled hazard ratios per 5 years younger age at menopause were 1.09 (95% CI, 1.07-1.12) for stroke, 1.09 (95% CI, 1.06-1.13) for ischemic stroke, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.04-1.16) for hemorrhagic stroke, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.08-1.20) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.84-1.20) for subarachnoid hemorrhage. When using 2-sample Mendelian randomization analysis, we found no statistically significant association between genetically proxied age at menopause and risk of any type of stroke. Conclusions In our study, earlier age at menopause was related to a higher risk of stroke. We found no statistically significant association between genetically proxied age at menopause and risk of stroke, suggesting no causal relationship.

Corrigendum: Characterization of the degree of food processing in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition: application of the Nova classification and validation using selected biomarkers of food processing.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fnut.2022.1035580.].

Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes: the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort.

PURPOSE: Type 2 diabetes is a global health problem. While a healthy diet lowers risk of type 2 diabetes, less is known about diets with low climate impact. This study aimed to investigate adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet and risk of type 2 diabetes in a Danish setting. METHODS: In the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort, dietary data were collected using a validated 192-item food frequency questionnaire, at recruitment in 1993-1997. In total, 54,232 participants aged 50-64 years at baseline with no previous cancer or diabetes diagnoses were included in the current analyses. The EAT-Lancet diet score was used to assess adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet. Participants scored 0 (non-adherence) or 1 (adherence) point for each of the 14 dietary components of the diet score (range 0-14 points). Participants were followed through register linkage until type 2 diabetes diagnosis or censoring. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. RESULTS: During a median 15-year follow-up period, 7130 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The hazard ratio for developing type 2 diabetes was 0.78 (95% CI 0.71; 0.86) for those with highest EAT-Lancet diet scores (11-14 points) compared to those with lowest scores (0-7 points) after adjusting for potential confounders. After further adjusting for potential mediators, including BMI, the corresponding hazard ratio was 0.83 (95% CI 0.76; 0.92). CONCLUSION: Greater adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was associated with a lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes in a middle-aged Danish population.

Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet in midlife and development in weight or waist circumference after five years in a Danish cohort.

Purpose: The EAT-Lancet reference diet has been proposed as a healthy dietary pattern to reduce food-related climate impacts, but little is known regarding associations with bodyweight development. This study investigated adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet in midlife and development in weight and waist circumference (WC) after five years. Design: The Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort recruited participants in 1993-1997. At baseline, data on diet, lifestyle, and anthropometry were collected. Participants self-reported weight and WC five years later. In total, 44,194 participants were included in analyses of weight (43,678 for WC). Baseline adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was scored 0-14 points. Multiple linear regression was used to estimate associations between the EAT-Lancet diet and development in weight and WC after five years. Poisson regression was used to estimate risk ratios (RR) of obesity (≥30 kg/m2) or elevated WC. Results: Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was not associated with follow-up weight, adjusting for baseline weight and confounders (11-14 vs 0-7 points ß: -0.08, 95% CI: -0.27, 0.11 kg), but was associated with lower follow-up WC adjusting for baseline WC and confounders (ß: -0.38, 95% CI: -0.69, -0.07 cm), and was associated with lower risk of obesity and elevated WC (RR 0.89, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.98, and 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.96, respectively). Conclusion: Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet in midlife was associated with lower WC but not weight after five years follow up, taking baseline into account. Our findings suggest that greater adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet does not contribute to development of obesity.

The DASH diet is associated with a lower risk of heart failure: a cohort study.

AIMS: Trials demonstrate that following the DASH diet lowers blood pressure, which may prevent the development of heart failure (HF). We investigated the association between long-term adherence to the DASH diet and food substitutions within the DASH diet on the risk of HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Men and women aged 45-83 years without previous HF, ischaemic heart disease or cancer at baseline in 1998 from the Cohort of Swedish Men (n = 41 118) and the Swedish Mammography Cohort (n = 35 004) were studied. The DASH diet emphasizes intake of fruit, vegetables, whole grains, nuts and legumes, and low-fat dairy and deemphasizes red and processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages, and sodium. DASH diet scores were calculated based on diet assessed by food frequency questionnaires in late 1997 and 2009. Incidence of HF was ascertained using the Swedish Patient Register. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During the median 22 years of follow-up (1998-2019), 12 164 participants developed HF. Those with the greatest adherence to the DASH diet had a lower risk of HF compared to those with the lowest adherence (HR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.80, 0.91 for baseline diet and HR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78, 0.89 for long-term diet, comparing quintiles). Replacing 1 serving/day of red and processed meat with emphasized DASH diet foods was associated with an 8-12% lower risk of HF. CONCLUSION: Long-term adherence to the DASH diet and relevant food substitutions within the DASH diet were associated with a lower risk of HF.

Characterization of the degree of food processing in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition: Application of the Nova classification and validation using selected biomarkers of food processing.

Background: Epidemiological studies have demonstrated an association between the degree of food processing in our diet and the risk of various chronic diseases. Much of this evidence is based on the international Nova classification system, which classifies food into four groups based on the type of processing: (1) Unprocessed and minimally processed foods, (2) Processed culinary ingredients, (3) Processed foods, and (4) "Ultra-processed" foods (UPF). The ability of the Nova classification to accurately characterise the degree of food processing across consumption patterns in various European populations has not been investigated so far. Therefore, we applied the Nova coding to data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) in order to characterize the degree of food processing in our diet across European populations with diverse cultural and socio-economic backgrounds and to validate this Nova classification through comparison with objective biomarker measurements. Methods: After grouping foods in the EPIC dataset according to the Nova classification, a total of 476,768 participants in the EPIC cohort (71.5% women; mean age 51 [standard deviation (SD) 9.93]; median age 52 [percentile (p)25-p75: 58-66] years) were included in the cross-sectional analysis that characterised consumption patterns based on the Nova classification. The consumption of food products classified as different Nova categories were compared to relevant circulating biomarkers denoting food processing, measured in various subsamples (N between 417 and 9,460) within the EPIC cohort via (partial) correlation analyses (unadjusted and adjusted by sex, age, BMI and country). These biomarkers included an industrial transfatty acid (ITFA) isomer (elaidic acid; exogenous fatty acid generated during oil hydrogenation and heating) and urinary 4-methyl syringol sulfate (an indicator for the consumption of smoked food and a component of liquid smoke used in UPF). Results: Contributions of UPF intake to the overall diet in % grams/day varied across countries from 7% (France) to 23% (Norway) and their contributions to overall % energy intake from 16% (Spain and Italy) to >45% (in the UK and Norway). Differences were also found between sociodemographic groups; participants in the highest fourth of UPF consumption tended to be younger, taller, less educated, current smokers, more physically active, have a higher reported intake of energy and lower reported intake of alcohol. The UPF pattern as defined based on the Nova classification (group 4;% kcal/day) was positively associated with blood levels of industrial elaidic acid (r = 0.54) and 4-methyl syringol sulfate (r = 0.43). Associations for the other 3 Nova groups with these food processing biomarkers were either inverse or non-significant (e.g., for unprocessed and minimally processed foods these correlations were -0.07 and -0.37 for elaidic acid and 4-methyl syringol sulfate, respectively). Conclusion: These results, based on a large pan-European cohort, demonstrate sociodemographic and geographical differences in the consumption of UPF. Furthermore, these results suggest that the Nova classification can accurately capture consumption of UPF, reflected by stronger correlations with circulating levels of industrial elaidic acid and a syringol metabolite compared to diets high in minimally processed foods.

Adherence to the EAT-Lancet Diet and Risk of Stroke and Stroke Subtypes: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We investigated the association between adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet, a sustainable and mostly plant-based diet, and risk of stroke and subtypes of stroke in a Danish population. For comparison, we also investigated the Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI). METHODS: We used the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort (n=55 016) including adults aged 50 to 64 years at baseline (1993-1997). A food frequency questionnaire was used to assess dietary intake and group participants according to adherence to the diets. Stroke cases were identified using a national registry and subsequently validated by review of medical records (n=2253). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for associations with the EAT-Lancet diet or the AHEI and risk of stroke and stroke subtypes. RESULTS: Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was associated with a lower risk of stroke, although not statistically significant (highest versus lowest adherence: hazard ratio, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.76-1.09]). A lower risk was observed for AHEI (0.75 [95% CI, 0.64-0.87]). For stroke subtypes, we found that adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was associated with a lower risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage (0.30 [95% CI, 0.12-0.73]), and the AHEI was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke (0.76 [95% CI, 0.64-0.90]) and intracerebral hemorrhage (0.58 [95% CI, 0.36-0.93]). CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet in midlife was associated with a lower risk of subarachnoid stroke, and the AHEI was associated with a lower risk of total stroke, mainly ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage.

Adherence to the Danish food-based dietary guidelines and risk of colorectal cancer: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: National dietary guidelines contribute to primary prevention of a wide range of diseases. Yet, the importance of adhering to the Danish dietary guidelines for colorectal cancer prevention is unclear. METHODS: We used the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort (n = 55,744) to investigate adherence to the Danish dietary guidelines and the risk of colorectal cancer. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for colorectal cancer and subtypes across the Danish Dietary Guidelines Index score (ranging 0-6 points, 6 being the greatest adherence). Effect modification by BMI was explored on multiplicative and additive scales. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 18.9 years, 1030 men and 849 women developed colorectal cancer. Higher index scores were associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer (HR 0.66; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53, 0.84, highest (≥5) versus lowest index score (<3 points) group). Similar inverse associations were observed between index scores and colon cancer. The risk difference was -0.8% (95% CI: -1.6, -0.1) among the overweight/obese group and 0.1% (95% CI: -0.7, 1.0) in the normal weight group for high compared to low adherence. CONCLUSION: Adherence to the Danish Dietary Guidelines was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer, particularly among people with overweight/obesity.

Co-benefits from sustainable dietary shifts for population and environmental health: an assessment from a large European cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy diets, the rise of non-communicable diseases, and the declining health of the planet are highly intertwined, where food production and consumption are major drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions, substantial land use, and adverse health such as cancer and mortality. To assess the potential co-benefits from shifting to more sustainable diets, we aimed to investigate the associations of dietary greenhouse gas emissions and land use with all-cause and cause-specific mortality and cancer incidence rates. METHODS: Using data from 443 991 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, a multicentre prospective cohort, we estimated associations between dietary contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and land use and all-cause and cause-specific mortality and incident cancers using Cox proportional hazards regression models. The main exposures were modelled as quartiles. Co-benefits, encompassing the potential effects of alternative diets on all-cause mortality and cancer and potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and land use, were estimated with counterfactual attributable fraction intervention models, simulating potential effects of dietary shifts based on the EAT-Lancet reference diet. FINDINGS: In the pooled analysis, there was an association between levels of dietary greenhouse gas emissions and all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·13 [95% CI 1·10-1·16]) and between land use and all-cause mortality (1·18 [1·15-1·21]) when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile. Similar associations were observed for cause-specific mortality. Associations were also observed between all-cause cancer incidence rates and greenhouse gas emissions, when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile (adjusted HR 1·11 [95% CI 1·09-1·14]) and between all-cause cancer incidence rates and land use (1·13 [1·10-1·15]); however, estimates differed by cancer type. Through counterfactual attributable fraction modelling of shifts in levels of adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet, we estimated that up to 19-63% of deaths and up to 10-39% of cancers could be prevented, in a 20-year risk period, by different levels of adherence to the EAT-Lancet reference diet. Additionally, switching from lower adherence to the EAT-Lancet reference diet to higher adherence could potentially reduce food-associated greenhouse gas emissions up to 50% and land use up to 62%. INTERPRETATION: Our results indicate that shifts towards universally sustainable diets could lead to co-benefits, such as minimising diet-related greenhouse gas emissions and land use, reducing the environmental footprint, aiding in climate change mitigation, and improving population health. FUNDING: European Commission (DG-SANCO), the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), MRC Early Career Fellowship (MR/M501669/1).

Food biodiversity and total and cause-specific mortality in 9 European countries: An analysis of a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Food biodiversity, encompassing the variety of plants, animals, and other organisms consumed as food and drink, has intrinsic potential to underpin diverse, nutritious diets and improve Earth system resilience. Dietary species richness (DSR), which is recommended as a crosscutting measure of food biodiversity, has been positively associated with the micronutrient adequacy of diets in women and young children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the relationships between DSR and major health outcomes have yet to be assessed in any population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined the associations between DSR and subsequent total and cause-specific mortality among 451,390 adults enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study (1992 to 2014, median follow-up: 17 years), free of cancer, diabetes, heart attack, or stroke at baseline. Usual dietary intakes were assessed at recruitment with country-specific dietary questionnaires (DQs). DSR of an individual's yearly diet was calculated based on the absolute number of unique biological species in each (composite) food and drink. Associations were assessed by fitting multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. In the EPIC cohort, 2 crops (common wheat and potato) and 2 animal species (cow and pig) accounted for approximately 45% of self-reported total dietary energy intake [median (P10-P90): 68 (40 to 83) species consumed per year]. Overall, higher DSR was inversely associated with all-cause mortality rate. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing total mortality in the second, third, fourth, and fifth (highest) quintiles (Qs) of DSR to the first (lowest) Q indicate significant inverse associations, after stratification by sex, age, and study center and adjustment for smoking status, educational level, marital status, physical activity, alcohol intake, and total energy intake, Mediterranean diet score, red and processed meat intake, and fiber intake [HR (95% CI): 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94), 0.80 (0.76 to 0.83), 0.69 (0.66 to 0.72), and 0.63 (0.59 to 0.66), respectively; PWald < 0.001 for trend]. Absolute death rates among participants in the highest and lowest fifth of DSR were 65.4 and 69.3 cases/10,000 person-years, respectively. Significant inverse associations were also observed between DSR and deaths due to cancer, heart disease, digestive disease, and respiratory disease. An important study limitation is that our findings were based on an observational cohort using self-reported dietary data obtained through single baseline food frequency questionnaires (FFQs); thus, exposure misclassification and residual confounding cannot be ruled out. CONCLUSIONS: In this large Pan-European cohort, higher DSR was inversely associated with total and cause-specific mortality, independent of sociodemographic, lifestyle, and other known dietary risk factors. Our findings support the potential of food (species) biodiversity as a guiding principle of sustainable dietary recommendations and food-based dietary guidelines.

Modifiable Lifestyle Recommendations and Mortality in Denmark: A Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Modifiable lifestyle behaviors represent a central target for public health interventions. This study investigates the association between adherence to 4 modifiable lifestyle recommendations and all-cause, cancer, or cardiovascular disease mortality. METHODS: Investigators used data from the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort (1993-2013; N=54,276). Lifestyle recommendations included smoking (never smoking), diet (adherence to 6 national food-based dietary guidelines), alcohol consumption (≤7 units per week for women and ≤14 units per week for men), and physical activity (≥30 minutes per day of moderate-to-vigorous leisure-time physical activity). Pseudo-values were used to estimate the adjusted risk differences and 95% CIs for all-cause, cancer, or cardiovascular disease mortality. Data were analyzed in 2019-2020. RESULTS: A total of 8,860 participants died during a median follow-up of 17.0 years. Adherence to all modifiable lifestyle recommendations was associated with an 18.46% (95% CI= -20.52%, -16.41%) lower absolute risk of all-cause mortality than no adherence. Never smokers had a 13.19% (95% CI= -13.95%, -12.44%) lower risk, those adhering to dietary guidelines (diet score ≥5) had a 7.52% (95% CI= -8.89%, -6.14%) lower risk, and those adhering to recommended levels of alcohol (2.11%, 95% CI= -2.75%, -1.48%) and physical activity (1.58%, 95% CI= -2.20%, -1.00%) had a lower risk than those who did not adhere. Stronger associations were observed in men than in women and in older than in middle-aged participants. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that adherence to modifiable lifestyle recommendations is associated with a lower risk of mortality from all causes, cancer, and cardiovascular disease, underlining the importance of supporting adherence to national guidelines for lifestyle recommendations.

Changes in intake of dairy product subgroups and risk of type 2 diabetes: modelling specified food substitutions in the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort.

PURPOSE: We investigated the association between an increased intake of one dairy product subgroup at the expense of another within a 5-year period and the subsequent 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The cohort included 39,393 adults with two measurements of diet assessed using food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) administered in 1993-1997 and 1999-2003. Dairy products were milk (skimmed, semi-skimmed, whole fat), buttermilk, low-fat yogurt, whole-fat yogurt, cheese and butter. Type 2 diabetes cases were ascertained from the Danish National Diabetes Register. The pseudo-observation method was used to calculate risk differences (RD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The data were analysed in age strata to fulfil the assumption of independent entry. RESULTS: Among participants aged 56-59 years at completion of the follow-up FFQ, increased intake of whole-fat yogurt in place of skimmed, semi-skimmed or whole-fat milk was associated with a reduced risk (RD% [95% CI]: - 0.8% [- 1.3, - 0.2]; - 0.6% [- 1,1, - 0.1]; - 0.7 [- 1.2, - 0.1]; per 50 g/d, respectively). Among participants aged 60-64 and 65-72, substitution of skimmed milk for semi-skimmed milk was associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes (0.5% [0.2, 0.7]; 0.4% [0.1, 0.7]; per 50 g/d, respectively). Similar patterns of associations were found after adjustment for potential mediators. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that substitution of whole-fat yogurt for milk among those aged 56-59 decreases risk of type 2 diabetes and substitution of skimmed milk for semi-skimmed milk may increase the risk among those aged 60-64 and 65-72.

Replacing Red Meat with Other Nonmeat Food Sources of Protein is Associated with a Reduced Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in a Danish Cohort of Middle-Aged Adults.

BACKGROUND: Few cohort studies have modelled replacements of red meat with other sources of protein on subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes using dietary changes. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether replacing red meat with other food sources of protein is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We used data from the Danish Diet, Cancer, and Health cohort (n = 39,437) of middle-aged (55-72 years old) men and women who underwent 2 dietary assessments roughly 5 years apart to investigate dietary changes. The pseudo-observation method was used to model the average exposure effect of decreasing the intake of red meat while increasing the intake of either poultry, fish, eggs, milk, yogurt, cheese, whole grains, or refined grains on the subsequent 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes, compared with no changes in the intakes of these foods. RESULTS: Replacing 1 serving/day (100 g/day) of red meat with 1 serving/day of eggs [risk difference (RD), -2.7%; 95% CI: -4.0 to -1.1%; serving size: 50 g/day], milk (RD, -1.2%; 95% CI: -2.1 to -0.4%; 200 g/day), yogurt (RD, -1.5%; 95% CI: -2.4 to -0.7%; 70 g/day), whole grains (RD, -1.7%; 95% CI: -2.5 to -0.9%; 30 g/day), or refined grains (RD, -1.2%; 95% CI: -2.0 to -0.3%; 30 g/day) was associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes. Analyses of replacements with poultry or cheese, but not fish, also suggested a lower risk, but with wide CIs. After further adjustment for potential mediators (BMI, waist circumference, and history of hypertension or hypercholesterolemia), only the replacement with eggs was associated with a reduced risk (RD, -1.7%; 95% CI: -3.0 to -0.5%; 50 g/day). CONCLUSIONS: Replacing red meat with eggs in middle-aged adults may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes. In models not adjusted for potential mediators, replacing red meat with milk, yogurt, whole grains, or refined grains was also associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes.

Adherence to the Danish food-based dietary guidelines and risk of type 2 diabetes: the Danish diet, cancer, and health cohort.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the association between adherence to the 2013 Danish dietary guidelines and the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a Danish cohort. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We used data from the Danish Diet, Cancer, and Health cohort. Participants aged 50-64 years were included from 1993-1997. Information on diet and covariates was collected at baseline using questionnaires and physical assessments. A diet index was developed to assess adherence to the Danish dietary guidelines. T2D cases were identified using the Danish National Diabetes Register. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR), and the pseudo-observation method was used to estimate risk differences, and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: A total of 54,305 subject were included. During a median follow-up of 15 years, 7136 participants were diagnosed with T2D. After multivariable adjustment, the HR for high versus low adherence to the index was 0.57 (95 % CI: 0.48, 0.69) in men, and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.83) in women. Compared with the lowest adherence to the index, high adherence was associated with a 6.58% (95% CI: -8.69; -4.47%) or 3.17% (95% CI: -4.90, -1.44%) lower risk of T2D in men and women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: High adherence to the Danish food-based dietary guidelines was associated with lower risk of T2D in a Danish cohort, both on a relative and an absolute scale. Shifting from low to high adherence to the dietary guidelines may provide public health benefit.

Food substitution models for nutritional epidemiology.

The advantage of using specified substitution analysis in nutritional epidemiology has been clearly demonstrated in studies of macronutrient intake and disease risk. However, the method has not been widely applied in studies of food intake. The aim of this article is to describe and compare the interpretation and application of different food substitution models in epidemiologic studies on diet and disease development. Both theoretically and in the context of a specific example, we discuss methodologic issues to be considered, including modeling of food substitutions using diet at a single time point or at multiple time points (focusing on dietary changes), choice of substitution unit, adjustment for total energy intake, and adjustment for confounding. We argue that specified food substitution analyses can be used to identify optimal food composition of the diet and that these analyses are thus highly relevant to inform public health policy decision makers.

Replacement of Red and Processed Meat With Other Food Sources of Protein and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in European Populations: The EPIC-InterAct Study.

OBJECTIVE: There is sparse evidence for the association of suitable food substitutions for red and processed meat on the risk of type 2 diabetes. We modeled the association between replacing red and processed meat with other protein sources and the risk of type 2 diabetes and estimated its population impact. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-InterAct case cohort included 11,741 individuals with type 2 diabetes and a subcohort of 15,450 participants in eight countries. We modeled the replacement of self-reported red and processed meat with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, cheese, cereals, yogurt, milk, and nuts. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for incident type 2 diabetes were estimated by Prentice-weighted Cox regression and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: There was a lower hazard for type 2 diabetes for the modeled replacement of red and processed meat (50 g/day) with cheese (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83-0.97) (30 g/day), yogurt (0.90, 0.86-0.95) (70 g/day), nuts (0.90, 0.84-0.96) (10 g/day), or cereals (0.92, 0.88-0.96) (30 g/day) but not for replacements with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, or milk. If a causal association is assumed, replacing red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, or nuts could prevent 8.8%, 8.3%, or 7.5%, respectively, of new cases of type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Replacement of red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, nuts, or cereals was associated with a lower rate of type 2 diabetes. Substituting red and processed meat by other protein sources may contribute to the prevention of incident type 2 diabetes in European populations.